Men's Season Projected Record, Broken Down by Game, by Rogabee


Steve has already posted his prediction in a variety of posts.  After looking at the schedule and doing a lot of research on the Atlantic 10 for an A-10 fantasy draft, here’s my predictions for the upcoming season.

 

vs. Abilene Christian.  The true definition of a buy game.  Abilene Christian is in their first year coming up from Division 2, and they know they’ll take their lumps.  Duquesne may be able to choose their score on O, and if I had a guess Ferry wants 100+.  Dukes, 106-75.

vs. New Hampshire.  A home game to one of the worst offensive teams in the country typically helps the record.  Dukes, 92-68.  (2-0 projected)

at West Virginia.  It’s actually a winnable road game against a BCS school, but I can’t see the Dukes pulling a second consecutive win out against the Mountaineers, especially in Morgantown.  WVU, 65-60. (2-1)

vs. Albany.  Albany will have a decent team that could give the Dukes trouble, but the Dukes get retribution for the opening game loss on the road last year to start the Ferry era.  Duquesne, 72-68.  (3-1)

vs. Pittsburgh.  The talent level between the Dukes and Panthers has vastly narrowed.  However, Pitt still right now has more.  Pitt, 68-59.  (3-2)

vs. UMBC.  After getting beat up by Pitt, the Dukes get a cupcake at home against one of the worst teams from the America East Conference.  Dukes, 91-77.  (4-2)

vs. Penn State.  In a series where home court has meant everything, the game is at Consol this year.  I like the Dukes close, 78-74.  (5-2)

vs. Robert Morris.  RMU still has a good bit back from a team that won the NEC regular season and beat Kentucky in the NIT last year.  RMU will likely be more up for the game than the Dukes, especially if the Dukes do beat Penn St.  RMU, 84-79.  (5-3)

at Saint Francis (PA).  The Dukes travel thru the pines to get a win on the road.  Dukes, 88-70.  (6-3)

at UMass-Lowell.  The Dukes, even with Ferry’s road struggles, should still win both St. Francis and UMass-Lowell.  Dukes again, 91-79.  (7-3)

at Texas-Pan American.  Same as above.  Texas Pan-Am may be a bottom 10 team in the country.  Dukes, 103-87.  (8-3)

vs. Appalachian State.  A team that may surprise some, especially with the way they’ll matchup against us, but it’s a team the Dukes still beat in Boone last year.  Don’t sleep on this one or have a New Year’s hangover.  Dukes, 78-71.  (9-3)

vs. Fordham.  Fordham will be much improved and should give the Dukes quite a few fits.  I like Pecora a lot, but not on the road in this projected close game.  Dukes, 83-78.  (10-3, 1-0 A-10)

vs. La Salle.  Whichever of Garland or Mills avoids Jeremiah’s defense I see lighting up the show at Palumbo.  Explorers, 87-74.  (10-4, 1-1)

at Saint Joe’s.  Once again, another huge matchup problem for the Dukes exists, this time in the form of Langston Galloway.  I don’t see the Dukes being able to outscore the Hawks on the road.  SJU, 78-70.  (10-5, 1-2)

at VCU.  VCU will likely be able to pick their score against a team they should crush.  VCU big, 93-66.  (10-6, 1-3)

vs. Saint Louis.  Without Majerus, and breaking down the matchups, the Dukes have a decent shot here.  Unfortunately, I think they come up a little short, but this may be one of those trap games on the road for SLU, especially if SLU coasts against the Bonnies and Fordham both at home before flying into the Burgh thinking a road game will be similar to those in Chaifetz.  Bills, 69-64.  (10-7, 1-4)

vs. St. Bonaventure.  A team of Kloof, Matthew Wright, Cumberbatch, Simmons, and Ndoye means the Bonnies should be close in the final standings with the Dukes, but likely a step behind in Pittsburgh.  Dukes, 78-73.  (11-7, 2-4)

at NJIT.  A cupcake out-of-conference game sandwiched right in the middle of A-10 play.  Dukes big, 89-67.  (12-7, 2-4)

at La Salle.  La Salle is competing for an at-large bid at this point, and won’t let up on the Dukes.  The Dukes can’t stop the runaway train.  La Salle, 95-67.  (12-8, 2-5)

at George Washington.  A nightmare matchup for the Dukes if Creek is healthy.  GW rolls, 81-58.  (12-9, 2-6)

vs. George Mason.  George Mason’s questions at PG are worrisome, particularly if the Dukes do force as many possessions as they can at home.  Dukes in a slight upset as Edwards has 7-8 turnovers, 73-64.  (13-9, 3-6)

vs. Richmond.  Another winnable game at home.  The Dukes may actually be able to defend the Spiders as well as anyone based off the matchup (KA3 or Sparrow at the SG doesn’t bother the Dukes as much as other A-10 teams, and McKoy I McKoy’s athleticism vs. Williams’s strength is a wash more than it will be for other A-10 members).  However, I don’t see the Dukes getting by both GMU and Richmond.  Spiders, 79-72.  (13-10, 3-7)

at URI.  Even with Hare leaving the Rams for the year, URI still has more talent – and better coaching – than the Dukes.  URI, 76-62.  (13-11, 3-8)

at St. Bonaventure.  Don’t you know the Dukes split the Bonnies every year by now? Bona wins in Olean as they slow the game down and Ndoye has Soko in foul trouble all game, 69-62.  (13-12, 3-9)

vs. Dayton.  A Dayton team that struggles in Pittsburgh, losing three of their last five to the Dukes, comes in with a frosh running the point.  I’ll take the Dukes in another mild upset here, 72-66.  (14-12, 4-9)

at Saint Louis.  SLU desperately needs a win per Joe Lunardi at this point.  SLU romps the Dukes, 81-56.  (14-13, 4-10)

vs. UMass.  Unfortunately, UMass also needs a win to keep hopes of an NCAA bid alive.  UMass, 89-76.  (14-14, 4-11)

at George Mason.  Road games to Fairfax, last year aside, are typically never fun.  Goo-Moos, 74-66.  (14-15, 4-12)

First round of the A-10 tourney.  I’ll project that we get UMass, but no matter who it is I’ll call it a loss against what figures to be a quality team.  (14-16)

There you have it…unfortunately I see the Dukes at 14-16.  I have the Dukes going 10-5 at home, 4-9 on the road, and 0-2 neutral.

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